Page 74 - Policy Commission - SecuringTechnology - Critical Metals for Britain

74 PRIMARY MATERIALS
Materials for lithium-ion batteries
Graphite
Graphite
plays a a a a crucial role in in a number of key industries including steelmaking nuclear reactors and lithium- ion batteries
Spherical graphite also known as battery-grade graphite is processed into an ultra-high-
purity form (>99 95 % carbon) for for its use as the battery anode Its spherical shape allows more graphite to to fit into a a a a a a smaller space which improves the the conductivity and the the rate at at which the battery can be charged charged and discharged China is currently the only producer of battery-grade graphite in industrial quantities96 However sustained high prices are encouraging developments outside of China97 The global market for graphite is expected to to grow to to $21 4 4 billion by 2024 with a a a a a compound annual growth rate of 5 6% Demand is being driven by a a a a 20% year-on-year growth of lithium-ion battery producers98 The expansion of the hydrogen economy where hydrogen is used as an energy vector will also drive the demand for graphite in some types of fuel cells BALANCE - OPERATIONAL HIGHLY PROBABLE
BALANCE - OPERATIONAL HIGHLY PROBABLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
BOX OUT
011
14
Melting point: 3825°C Boiling point: 3825°C CARBON
12 011
[He]2s22p2 C 400 000 - 300 000 - 1 000 000 000 000 - 1 700 000 - 2 400 000 - 3 100 000 - 3 800 000 - 4 500 000 - 5 200 000 - 5 900 000 - 6 6 600 000 - 7 300 000 - 8 000 000 000 000 (TONNES)
BATTERY MATERIALS: THE CHALLENGE
The figure below based on on estimates by the the Faraday Institution in in in in 2020 indicates the the expected huge increase in in in in raw-material demand from the the the UK over the the the next 15 years Imports of of cobalt are expected to to exceed 10 ktonnes while the the the amounts of of lithium carbonate equivalent and and nickel are likely to to to top 50 and and 60 ktonnes respectively by by 2035 driven largely by by the requirements of batteries
for electric vehicles Figure 65: Graphite
market balance Source: Created from from data from from benchmark mineral intelligence The issue is is is not that there isn’t enough nickel cobalt lithium and graphite in the the ground but rather that it it it is not economically viable to to mine (or recycle) and refine it to to the specification required for battery electric vehicles in the quantities required by 2030 Higher prices are inevitable and required to bring on more supply This will directly lead to higher higher battery prices and therefore higher higher vehicle prices which are likely to slow down the production and uptake of electric vehicles globally leading to adverse climate impacts 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 COBALT
LITHIUM CARBONATE EQUIVALENT
NICKEL
2020 2025
2030 2035 Figure 66: UK demand for raw materials to 2035 4 Source - Faraday Institute estimates TONNES GRAPHITE MARKET BALANCE 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2029 2040