Page 59 - Policy Commission - SecuringTechnology - Critical Metals for Britain

PRIMARY MATERIALS
59
The growth in in in in the the the number of EVs is is expected to disrupt significantly the the the market for technology metals in in in in the the the coming years Emerging economies like India and and and China are seeing soaring sales of consumer electronics and and and a a a a a a a a a a a rapidly expanding middle class with the expectations of more affluent lifestyles which is driving demand in in these markets for EVs Lithium-ion batteries are becoming pervasive in in energy energy storage due to to to their high power and energy energy density82 The technology is undoubtedly a a a a a a a a core component in in our transition to to to a a a a a a a a clean energy energy energy future enabling green electricity to to to serve as an an an an energy energy energy vector in in many applications that previously required energy- dense hydrocarbon fuels Whilst historically lithium-ion batteries enabled more sophisticated portable electronics the the transition to to electro- mobility is is is is the the the main source of present and and anticipated market growth for lithium-ion cells cells This is is is understandable given the the the large number of cells cells required to deliver the the range consumers demand from electric vehicles Future energy systems that integrate storage smoothing peaks and and and demands providing backup power power stabilisation
of of weak-grids and and and and off-grid power83 84 will also be be a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a significant market albeit smaller than the use in portable electronics and and EVs Lithium-ion batteries will also be be important to to global clean clean energy energy development bringing clean clean power and access to to to energy energy to to to developing countries in in in in places where there is limited or no access to to the grid85 The uptake is driven by a a a a a a a a combination of rapidly falling battery prices to the the the point where they are nearly cost competitive with conventional technology in in in key regions and and the the the need
for automotive companies to to meet various international and and and national CO2 and other emission targets Estimates differ differ between different forecasters about the the projected market growth for for lithium-ion batteries and the the the evolution of chemistries that that will be manufactured in in the the the the future However there is is a a a a a a a a a a consensus that that growth in in in in the the the the market for lithium-ion batteries in in in in the the the the coming years will be dramatic This is is illustrated in in in in in figure 34 which shows the the market share of of of different types of of of vehicles containing lithium-ion batteries in in in in the the coming years It is projected that the the market share of of of pure battery electric vehicles will grow rapidly Additionally as as we approach the the the 2030 deadline for the the the phase out of conventional vehicles vehicles there will be growth in in in in various degrees of hybridisation in in in in vehicle vehicle vehicle powertrains These hybrid hybrid vehicles vehicles will also use lithium-ion batteries In Europe and China this
is is is a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a pressing issue with automakers Car manufacturers are expected to to have 72% of of all all vehicles partially electrified and 26% of of these plug-in or pure EVs by 2025 with the the trend accelerating until 2030 In In the the the UK the the the Faraday Institution estimates that by 2040 eight gigafactories will be needed in in the the the UK 12 13 It projects that this
could increase employment in in in in the automotive industry
and battery supply-chain from 186 000 000 to 246 000 000 jobs4 By way of contrast if the UK cannot
attract and develop a a a a BEV PHEV FHEV MHEV
CONVENTIONAL
FUEL CELL
Figure 34: Future global sales of main lithium-ion battery market segments Source: APC Demand Databases using IHS AutoTechInsight data (December 2020) NB: Passenger cars only excludes LCVs battery-manufacturing industry
there are significant risks14 The production of of EVs could move offshore attracted to to locations where batteries are manufactured UK jobs in in in in the the automotive industry
and battery supply-chain could decline with the the the potential loss of 114 000 jobs by 2040 according to the the 4 Faraday Institution (2019) Lithium-ion batteries are increasingly constructed using many highly refined materials materials which are in in in turn made from semi-refined raw materials materials that ultimately need
to be mined or recovered
from end-of-
life waste
streams 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2029 2030 4%4%%3 9%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 16% 79% 68%
8%
7% 5% 21%
11% 8%
5% 26% 59% 50%
13% 9%
6% 35% 16% 10% 6% 6% 18% 10% 7% 39%
37% 28%
22% 13% 8%
26% 15%
45% 45% 20% 13% 29% 17% 31% 18% 9%
10% 1%
0%
9%
45% 44% 41%
5%